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Current long range forecast

On The Weather FrontThe "not to be taken too seriously" long range forecast issued 6th January 2018, next update March 2018.“Snowmen fall from heaven....unassembled" - Author unknown.Early winter has been relatively dry and sunny in Lynesack but not without the usual gales, snow and ice. Some snow fell during Christmas again. We are now awaiting storm Georgina having suffered Caroline, Dylan and Eleanor recently. Caroline brought gales in early December, Dylan a short spell of snow just before New Year and Eleanor arrived suddenly in early January with 100mph winds in upper Teesdale, heavy rain and some snow. Unusually severe cold in North America is currently setting up big temperature contrasts and these are increasing the power of our jetstream. I expect Georgina will be here soon as a result, with Hector, Iona and James probably not far behind. It is not unusual for our weather to be stormy at this time of year. The stormy spells seem to fit a pattern of the first and last weeks of January, February and March with settled spells in the middle of the months. This happens around 80% of the years in my records. In Lynesack the stormy spells are invariably associated with milder winds off the Atlantic and the settled periods are normally when high pressure manages to build in between with clearer skies and light winds. It is during this settled weather that we have frosts and fog. When the milder air pushes back in we can see snow, especially on our fells, as the cold and frosty air mixes with the rain and cools it. Just how long the snow lasts depends on how strong the blocking high pressures are.Occasionally in a Lynesack winter we have a surge of colder air from the east and this can last longer, depending on the strength of the jetstream trying to push it back. These cold outbreaks are often later in the winter if there is a big build up of really cold air across northern Europe. So far there are no signs of this but a week is a long time in Lynesack weather forecasting.The Met Office scientists are expecting mostly westerly flows for the rest of this season. This would bring normal or slightly above normal temperatures with above normal wind speeds. Much of the weather will be coming from the west and this puts us in the shelter of the higher Pennines and Cumbrian fells. Although it tends to be breezy under these set-ups, it is relatively dry and sunny. This has been the general way of things for some time now, in fact 2017 was the driest year since 2003 with above average sunshine. Temperatures were slightly above average.There are thoughts among climate scientists that the continuing reduction of sea ice in the north will increase the chances of Atlantic low pressure systems approaching our western shores. Time will tell of course.If none of these forecasts work, then have a look at the old country sayings below:-Blame nature, not me, if these are wrong! :-"As the light grows longer, so the cold grows stronger.If Candlemas (2nd February) be fair and bright, winter will have another flightIf Candlemas be cloud and rain winter will be gone and not come again.A farmer should on Candlemas Day have half his corn and half his hay.On Candlemas Day if thorns hang a drop you can be sure of a good pea crop.""Pale moon rains, red moon blows, white moon neither rains nor snows.""If the groundhog sees his shadow on Groundhog Day(2nd February) there will be six more weeks of winter.""When the sky is red in the morning and sounds travel far at night,When fish jump high from the water and flies stick tight and bite,When you can't get salt from your shaker and your corn gives you extra pain.There's no need to consult the weatherman, you just know it's going to rain!" If you don't like Lynesack weather, just wait a minute.My usual ode to the weatherman:- "And in the dying embers these are my main regrets, when I'm right no one remembers, when I'm wrong no one forgets."Keep up to date with my website and the Teesdale Mercury Enjoy our weather – it’s never dull and behind the clouds the sun is shining. Ken Cook, http://www.kencook.magix.net (follow the links for real-time goodies)



COPLEY CLIMATOLOGICAL STATION altitude 253metres(830feet) Met. Office manned observing site.