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Current long range forecast

On The Weather FrontThe "not to be taken too seriously" long range forecast issued 6th September 2018, next update November 2018.“The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it". Patrick YoungSo far 2018 has been a fascinating year for a weather forecaster and recorder. We had the “Beast from the east” in late winter with copious amounts of snow and frost followed by one of the warmest and driest summers on our record. 2006 was the last summer that could compete with this one, then 1995 and of course the famous one of 1976. The autumn that followed 1976 became one of the wettest ever recorded, so will that pattern repeat itself this autumn?Perhaps surprisingly to most, because the press have continued to tell us that the world is warming out of control, sea surface temperatures continue to be below average across most of the North Atlantic as not everywhere has had a warm summer, believe it or not! A cooler ocean like this often increases the chances of fair weather high pressure systems (anticyclones) building across northern Europe during autumn. Sea surface temperatures around our shores are understandably above normal because of our recent warm summer and this along with the promise of higher pressure could well bring us a fine and warm autumn. This is not unusual in Lynesack – ask anyone and they will tell you that when the schools go back, the weather improves!Autumn is normally the season when Atlantic depressions, strengthened by tropical storms, become more intense and after a fine beginning it often becomes one of the stormiest and wettest parts of the year. However, for the reasons already mentioned about increased anticyclonic activity, this autumn is expected to be drier than usual. It will still rain though, but not as much as usual and it looks like being warmer rain when it does come!Hopefully then, many of the Atlantic storms should be delayed until December this year and we can enjoy a fine, warm autumn. The nights will still draw in and if it is warm, the grass will keep growing which will please some but not all. This is true of all my forecasts - I can’t please all the people all the time. This is my interpretation of the various outlooks with the help of countless computer predictions. This forecast’s chances are probably only 60% for accuracy at best after all this. Enjoy any fine days that do come along.What can nature tell us in the autumn?“When down the chimney falls the soot, mud will soon be underfoot.”“If salt is sticky and gains in weight, it will rain before too late.”“The more cloud types present, the greater the chance of rain.”“When the night goes to bed with a fever, it will awake with a wet head.”“A ring around the sun or moon means rain is coming soon.”“Flowers in late autumn blooming, a sure sign of a hard winter coming.”If ducks do slide at Hallowtide, at Christmas they will swim, but If ducks do swim at Hallowtide, at Christmas they will slide.Rain in October brings wind in DecemberIf the October moon comes without frost, expect no frost until the moon of November.A cold November, a warm Christmas. A warm November a cold winter.Wind from the north-west on St Martin’s Day (11th November) there’s a severe winter on the way.Wind from the south-west on St Martin’s Day, it will stay there until February with a mild winter.Seagull, seagull, sit on the sand, it’s never fine weather when you’re on the land. Remember a cow with its tail to the west makes the weather the best, but a cow with its tail to the east makes the weather least!The ode to the weatherman:- "And in the dying embers these are my main regrets, when I'm right no one remembers, when I'm wrong no one forgets."Keep up to date with my website and the Teesdale Mercury Enjoy our weather – it’s never dull and behind the clouds the sun is always shining. Ken Cook, (follow the links for real-time goodies)

COPLEY CLIMATOLOGICAL STATION altitude 253metres(830feet) Met. Office manned observing site.