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Current long range forecast

On The Weather FrontThe "not to be taken too seriously" long range forecast issued 4th May 2019, next update July 2019.“When it is evening it will be fair weather for the sky is red. In the morning it will be foul weather for the sky is red” Matthew 16.2-3.The weather has certainly been unusual this year so far. April was colder and frostier than a lot of March and there was the usual Lynesack snowfall, once again one of the heaviest in the country. In fact the only Met Office site that could beat our 8cm fall on 3rd was at Warcop Camp in Cumbria. It then carried on unusually with a drought from 7th to 24th and the cold start was well matched by temperatures around 21°C(70°F) mid-month. Temperatures all ended around normal with a colder finish which is continuing into May as I write. There were five mornings with grass surface temperatures below -10°C(14°F), unprecedented for April. This early May Bank Holiday cool spell with temperatures around 7°C(45°F) contrasts starkly with last year’s figures of 23°C(73°F) and 13 hours of sunshine! Lynesack weather is rarely boring and rarely easy to forecast beyond a week.Buchan’s cold spells have fallen roughly into line so far this year in early April and early May. His next expected cold snap is in early July, so keep a look out for it and see if the famous meteorologist of 150 years ago can be right again! His warm spell that is covered by this forecast period should be in early July – we shall see. What of the coming summer? I wrote last time that it was looking good. This was based on the fact that mild winters are more often than not followed by fine summers. Whether it will be fine during the fortnight that you take for your holiday is not easy to tell, but overall it should be warmer than normal. Let’s hope the sun follows suit and keeps up the good work – each month of 2019 has been sunny so far . There seems to be a cycle of roughly three fine summers followed by three poor ones. Last summer was a beauty the first decent one for five years with July being particularly pleasant, warm, sunny and dry. Not everyone likes warm weather, though, and at the moment we are almost into drought conditions which could well be a problem later in the season.In June 1976, a record high of 30°C(86°F) was noted in my thermometer screen. However, our lowest early summer air temperatures can still fall below freezing by night and in late June 1974 a screen low of -3°C(27°F) upset many plants (and gardeners). Ground frosts are to be expected in all months of the year in Lynesack. It is not unknown for snow to fall in June as on 2nd and 3rd June 1975 when 3 inches (7cm) lay on Hartside Pass at 2000feet. This was followed by the sunniest June for many years and a heatwave!Mid-July seems to be a crucial time in summer forecasting and this was noticed many years ago with the St Swithin’s saying. It is the weeks either side of St Swithin’s Day, 15th July, that need noting, not the actual day. Often the jetstream position then can last until around St Bartholomew’s Day, (24th August).Anyway, let’s hope it’s soon hot enough for people to complain about how hot it is!Now the not so scientific approach:- "When a cow tries to scratch her ear, it means that rain is very near""When the dew is on the grass, rain will not come to pass""Rainbow at noon, more rain soon”"Flies will swarm before a storm""Bad weather always looks worse through a window""When cattle remain on hilltops, fine weather to come”"If birds fall silent, expect thunder”"A thunderstorm goes against the wind"“Storms will travel thousands of miles for the opportunity to rain on a tent”The ode to the weatherman:- "And in the dying embers these are my main regrets, when I'm right no one remembers, when I'm wrong no one forgets."Keep up to date with my website and the Teesdale Mercury Enjoy our weather – it’s never dull and behind the clouds the sun is always shining. Ken Cook,http://www.kencook.magix.net (follow the links for real-time goodies)



COPLEY CLIMATOLOGICAL STATION altitude 253metres(830feet) Met Office manned observing site.