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Current long range forecast

On The Weather FrontThe "not to be taken too seriously" long range forecast issued 7th July 2018, next update September 2018.“Rainbows apologise for angry skies" Sylvia Voirol.As I write this at the start of the second week in July, there is much talk about the fine summer we are having. It has been a long time coming and so far we are making up for the cold and snowy late winter and spring. May was very sunny and dry, June followed suit and July is much the same so far. The June Monsoon didn’t happen this year. What on earth has happened? The sudden stratospheric warming in January upset the circulation in the northern hemisphere and disrupted the jetstream. It seems to have had a longer term effect than I expected and the jet is currently well to our north allowing the semi-permanent Azores’ High Pressure system to build across us from the south-west. This happens during most of our fine summer spells, but how long will it last?Some of the theories about global warming causing the jet to stay south of us and bring poor summers are now being questioned, just as theories were after our severe end to winter. I stick by my guns and do not do any serious forecasting beyond 10 days. Lynesack and Teesdale weather is just too changeable and unpredictable in my opinion. I see that the scientists at the Met Office are now not so confident as they were about the month ahead and suggest that changeable weather will begin to move in from the north and west. Their expected outlook would still bring decent summer weather but interspersed with bands of rain and showers. The best weather would be in the south-east as it often is – and where most people live to enjoy it.I think things will return to nearer normal by August – the real holiday month that most remember as summer. The comparisons the Press are making with the unusual summer of 1976 will be forgotten quickly and we will be back to taking raincoats and umbrellas with us “just in case”. We could still be wearing summery clothes though as I think it will remain quite warm.A big problem is media-hype. We are being asked to expect a scorching summer now. The grass and fields are brown we are in drought conditions and our homes are unusually warm without a fire being lit. This can all change within a week. This is Lynesack, not Lanzarote and the cooler, showery Atlantic air is out there just waiting to pounce. Also, the Atlantic hurricane season has started as Beryl makes her mark. However, being completely illogical, we are still in the World Cup and St Swithin’s Day is the same day as the final – could this be our year for weather and football or will it just fizzle out? You will know the answer to one of those questions by the time you read this article!Remember, the position of the jet around the St Swithin's Day period, 15th July, has lasted until late August (St Bartholomew's Day, 24th) on many occasions in Lynesack summers. This year is looking like a good one at the moment – if you like sunshine and not much rain, that is. However, fine Junes are often followed by wet autumns - although autumn is traditionally our best season in Lynesack. The autumn following the much talked about summer of 1976 autumn was very wet indeed.What can nature tell us in late summer?"If a cat washes her face over her ear, 'tis a sign the weather will be fine and clear.""A wet June makes a dry September, a dry June makes a wet September""Flies bite more before rain" (They are attracted to sweat in humid weather and find it harder to fly.)"Pimpernel, pimpernel, tell me true whether the weather be fine or no. No heart can think, no tongue can tell the virtues of the pimpernel" (The pimpernel closes when the air becomes humid before rain)"Sounds travelling far and wide, a rainy day will betide"The ode to the weatherman:- "And in the dying embers these are my main regrets, when I'm right no one remembers, when I'm wrong no one forgets."Keep up to date with my website and the Teesdale Mercury Enjoy our weather – it’s never dull and behind the clouds the sun is always shining. Ken Cook, http://www.kencook.magix.net (follow the links for real-time goodies)



COPLEY CLIMATOLOGICAL STATION altitude 253metres(830feet) Met. Office manned observing site.